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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was established by the Chancellor in May 2010 to provide independent assessments of the economy, public finances, and fiscal sustainability. We provide independent forecasts of the economy and public finances to inform the Government's fiscal policy decisions, examine the impact of the Government's policy decisions on the public finances, and assess the prospects for achieving the Government's fiscal targets and welfare cap. We publish reports on long-term fiscal sustainability, fiscal risks, and trends in welfare spending, and run a wider work programme of research and analysis into economic and fiscal issues.

The OBR is comprised of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC) – Richard Hughes (Chair), Professor David Miles, and Andy King – who are currently supported by around 45 civil servants, including economists, public finance analysts, and business support staff. As we are a small organisation with a flat structure, all roles offer direct exposure to senior staff and the opportunities to manage relationships with stakeholders across government and to project manage work programmes. You would get the chance to work flexibly across a range of high-profile issues, responding to policy developments and other demands. At times, this would involve working with experts to analyse technical issues, such as changes to tax or spending policy. A role here also provides a great opportunity to develop your ability to communicate your insights concisely to non-experts – for instance, by authoring sections of published reports.

We encourage applications from candidates who may be concerned they have less experience in some of the desired criteria, and recognise that gaps can be developed on-the-job and with training, which is available.

The OBR is committed to having a diverse workforce that brings together the best people across government. If you have any concerns, we are happy to discuss any potential obstacles you think you might face. This post is available on a full time, part time, or job share basis. Flexible working hours and remote working can be accommodated. We have a number of staff working flexible hours as well as managing childcare responsibilities and/or other commitments throughout the year, including our forecast events.

We are recruiting two senior economists to work in our economy team. The team is responsible for producing the OBR’s economic forecast and associated analysis, and produces the economy chapter of the twice-yearly Economic and fiscal outlook. The team also contributes extensively to the OBR’s other key publications, including the Forecast evaluation report and Fiscal risks and sustainability report. In addition, the team is engaged across the OBR’s analytical and research agenda – for instance by producing working papers, working on model development, or undertaking an annual stocktake of the supply side of the economy.

The roles will involve a significant amount of a high-profile responsibility, contributing to the production of the economic forecast and engaging extensively with the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee. They therefore offer plenty of scope to independently produce high-profile, important analysis, collaborate with others in the team and across Government, and build and manage relationships with external stakeholders.

We are offering two roles – one in the economic analysis and modelling team and one in the economy forecasting team. Both roles can be moulded to suit the skills and experience of the successful candidate:

The role in the economic analysis and modelling team involves:

• Overseeing the economy chapter of the EFO, including writing relevant sections and overseeing contributions from other staff members,
• Taking a lead responsibility for the presentation of risk and uncertainty around our economy forecast in the economic and fiscal outlook. This might involve producing alternative scenarios, developing new modelling infrastructure, or producing analysis to inform key judgements.
• Line and work managing an assistant economist.

The role in the economy forecasting team involves:

• Leading on high profile areas of the economy forecast, by producing the forecast and presenting it to the Budget Responsibility Committee. For instance, past E roles in the team have involved leading on labour markets and potential output; or GDP and its composition.
• Helping shape the overall forecast narrative, by overseeing contributions from more junior staff members, and taking a leading role in office-wide and cross-cutting discussions on the economic outlook.
• Developing and refining necessary modelling infrastructure and forecast methodologies.

Like all roles in the economy team, both roles provide ample opportunity to:

• Undertake bespoke economic analysis to inform key forecast judgements and contribute to the economy team’s other outputs, such as our supply stocktake or sections of the Fiscal risks and sustainability report
• Represent the OBR effectively in meetings with external organisations, including the Office for National Statistics, HM Treasury, OECD, IMF and Bank of England.

Tom Wickstead (thomas.wickstead@obr.uk) or Scott Bowman (scott.bowman@obr.uk), would be happy to discuss the post further with potential applicants.

Required Qualifications:

• Economics qualification (undergraduate degree or above).

Required Behaviours, Experience and Technical Skills:

• A strong and broad understanding of macroeconomics, and the ability to apply this in practical settings (Technical skill)
• Analyse and accurately interpret data from various sources to support decisions. Find the best option by identifying positives, negatives, risks and implications. (Making effective decisions)
• Ensure plans and activities in your area of work reflect wider strategic priorities and communicate effectively with senior leaders. Bring together views, perspectives and diverse needs of stakeholders to gain a broader understanding of the issues surrounding activities (Seeing the Big Picture)
• Proven ability to work flexibly across a number of competing projects/deliverables, prioritise the most important parts and deliver high-quality work to deadline. Maintain own levels of performance in challenging circumstances and encourage others to do the same (Delivering at pace)

The lead criteria is: Technical skill

If we receive a large number of applications, applications will be assessed against this criteria alone first. They will then be assessed against the other criteria if they have met the minimum score on the lead criteria.

Candidate Guidance on Completing your Application Form

All elements of the success profiles will be linked to a defined criterion that demonstrates the behaviour, experience or technical skills. It is beneficial to ensure your answer focuses on the full criteria, and not just the related success profile, to give you the best chance or providing the evidence the panel wants to assess

In your statements, it is best to focus on one example in each section to allow you to provide enough detail in your answer and use all the words you have been allocated. Examples from a range of roles across your application will demonstrate that you have the skills, experience and behaviours we are looking for. We would also advise you to use examples that best meet the criteria, even if it is a few years old

How to Structure your Answer

We'll assess you against these behaviours during the selection process:

• Making Effective Decisions
• Delivering at Pace
• Seeing the Big Picture

We'll assess you against these technical skills during the selection process:

• A strong and broad understanding of macroeconomics, and the ability to apply this in practical settings

Benefits

• 25 days’ annual leave (rising to 30 after 5 years), plus 8 public holidays and the King’s birthday (unless you have a legacy arrangement as an existing Civil Servant)
• Flexible working patterns (part-time, job-share, condensed hours)
• Access to a generous Defined Benefit pension scheme with an average employer contribution of 27%
• Access to a cycle-to-work salary sacrifice scheme, season ticket advances and payroll giving
• Access to a retail discounts and cashback site
• A Rental Deposit Advance Scheme to help meet the total costs of deposits for privately rented homes

Job contact :

Name :
Tom Wickstead
Email :
thomas.wickstead@obr.uk

Recruitment team :

Email :
hrrecruitment@hmtreasury.gov.uk